Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected until the next harvest is available in October.Nine years after Dan Brown’s The Da Vinci Code popularized the theory that Jesus was married to Mary Magdalene, Harvard historian Karen L. In pastoral areas, pasture and water availability are limited, resulting in minimal milk availability, high livestock deaths, and poor terms of trade.
In belg-cropping areas, poor rainfall culminated in a failed belg season, which in turn caused a significantly below-average long-cycle meher harvest. Across much of central and eastern Ethiopia, the rains fell for only a few days and totaled less than 50 percent of average. The belg/gu/genna rains from February/March to May 2022 were historically low. There is a risk that more extreme outcomes could emerge in mid-to-late 2022 if food assistance delivery is not scaled-up and timely. Conditions will only further deteriorate during the July to September dry season and minimally improve during the below-average October to December rainy season. According to the government, reported livestock deaths amounted to around 3.4 million as of early June. Minimal pasture and water availability have resulted in poor to emaciated livestock body conditions, rendering household livestock holdings increasingly unsalable and milk availability very low. Levels of acute malnutrition are already within the ‘Critical’ and ‘Extremely Critical’ levels. In October, the harvest is expected to stabilize food consumption somewhat and sustain Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, but more extreme outcomes are not expected during this time as active conflict is not ongoing during the land preparation and planting season.Įmergency (IPC Phase 4) is also expected to be widespread in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, where drought conditions are forecast to persist through at least mid-2023 due to an unprecedented fifth consecutive poor rainfall season in late 2022. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, at a minimum, are expected to be widespread, and more extreme outcomes will likely remain possible through the peak of the lean season in September. Recent humanitarian aid distributions are mitigating food consumption deficits among recipients, but current levels remain far below the scale of need. Food prices are also exceptionally high, and given that most households must purchase nearly all of their food until the harvest, anecdotal reports suggest they are using high and severe levels of coping to survive. While households continue to engage in agricultural activities within Tigray as they are able, seasonal labor migration to West Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia – which is usually a critical source of income – is not a viable option due to insecurity. Tigray is expected to remain the area of highest concern until the start of the meher harvest in October. Prior to 2022, the highest recorded needs in this time period were in 2016 following the El-Nino drought. This statement is in relation to the 2014-2022 for which FEWS NET has comparable national needs estimates. Scaled-up and sustained food assistance, as well as unfettered humanitarian access, is needed immediately to save lives. Multiple areas of the country face the potential for more extreme outcomes associated with high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely be widespread in northern, central, southern, and southeastern Ethiopia through at least January 2023.
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